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Peter's Political Blog

Liberals at 40%
Posted: Dec 07, 2005
Last seen: Jan 12, 2010

previous posting Updates Dec 06, 2005
next posting Votes for Sale.... on Ebay Dec 07, 2005

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SES 3 day rolling average now has the Liberals at 40%. [link]

I gotta say I'm a little surprised at how poorly the Tories are doing so far in this campaign.  They are doing everything that I think they have to do to gain support.  They are talking policy and not going on angry rampages.  Maybe they are saving that for the 2nd half of the campaign?

And yet they can't gain support.  Is that because Harper is such a wad no one wants him to be PM?  Or is it that no one trusts the Tories to keep their word?

What I would like to see one day is stats on voter's loyalties.  A question like.... Do you have a strong party loyalty?  For example you will always vote for a specific party regardless of (within reason) what gets said or done in a campaign?  If so which party?

Kinda wordy I know... but the intention would be to determine how many votes are swayable, and thus it would give us a better idea of how the campaigning is going.  For example, in the current poll, SES has:

Liberals 40%
Conservatives 28%
NDP 17%
Bloc 11%
Green 4%

Well if we found that:

17% will always support the Libs,
17% will always support the Cons,
8% will always support the NDP
8% will always support thte Bloc
0% will alwats support the Greens

Then of the 50% of the population which can be swayed we find that:

46% support Liberals
22% support Cons
18% support NDP
6% support Bloc
8% support Greens

I think this example would be better served by removing the Bloc and just focusing on national parties, but it works to show my point.  Now instead of the Liberals having a 12 point lead on the Tories, they have a 24 point lead and I think this number is much more useful for the parties when it comes to planning strategy. 

Since the 'strong loyalty' voters won't be swayed you really have to focus on those who can be, and that would give a much better picture of who's campaigning is better.

The following comments have already been recorded.
comment by: Peter
Another quick example to show why I would like to see these stats:

Let's say that 30% always support the Libs and only 10% support the Cons. And then we fudge the other party support so that it all adds to 50 just so we have easy numbers to work with.

In this case the Libs would have the support of 20% of the swayable votes, while the Tories would have 36%. And so even though they would still lose an election we can see the Tories are campaigning much more effectivly.

It also gives a better picture of how much work the Tories would have to do to get into the lead. For example by SES stats they would need to steal 6 points from the Liberals (or 15% of the Liberal's support) and they would be both tied at 34%.

But since we know a certain population is unswayable what they need is 6 points from the 10 points which are swayable, so in reality they Tories need to sway 60% of the swayable votes curently voting for the Liberals.

I hope people can follow that. Does anyone know if there are some party loyalty stats like that around somewhere?
comment by: stribe35
Why are the Liberals at 40%? Well. for Conservative supporters, some of their answers will be that its those "corrupt-loving Ontarions" or perhaps its those "pogey-loving Maritimers" fault.

Thing is.. the SES poll is showing the Liberals slowly climbing in the West as well. Maybe some Tories should start looking at their leader or their policies.

Example: SES said tonight that this slow upwards movement for the Liberals and the spike in Paul Martin's performance meter coincided with his Daycare announcement - apparently Canadians approved of it far more then they approve of Harper's version.

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