by: Rob on Nov 22, 2005|
(Written June 27, 2004)
So the election is 2 days away. I've been silent on the issue, but I will publish my predictions right now.
Liberals - 124
Conservatives - 103
Bloc Quebecois - 52
NDP - 28
Independent/Other - 1
Result: A Liberal/NDP Coalition government with a small number of BQ crossing the floor to sustain them.
This will be a very tenuous situation. Any more seats and it will be a stable coalition government. Any fewer and they're doomed.
Those that have spoken to me in past weeks know this is a slight alteration from my previous prediction:
Liberals: Previously I said 127, Polls are around 101. Now I say 124
BQ: Previously I said 58, Polls are around 66. Now I say 52. (I am bold)
NDP: Previously I said 24, Polls are 24, but I now say 28.
Conservatives: Previously I said 99, polls are around 117, I now say 103.
Independent: of all the star candidiates, and the Greens, there will be at least 1 elected.
By the way, the Greens most likely to get elected are Andrew Lewis and Andrea Goldsmith in BC.
There are lots of good independents, like Jim Pankiw and Chuck Cadman.
Who am I voting for?
Not the Liberals. I'd rather shoot myself in the crotch than vote for those a-holes.
1. They say I should be scared of what Harper will do to the country.
A: What can Harper POSSIBLY do to the country that the Liberals haven't already been doing?
2. They say they have a better platform.
A: Even if I agreed, they haven't kept their campaign promises yet.
3. They say Harper has a hidden agenda.
A: Harper seems to be a lot more precise in what he will do than the Liberals.
Not the NDP. I don't need to explain why - I'd have to be brain-damaged to vote for such crap, no matter how good an actor they have as a leader.
Well I'm not directly opposed to it. He strikes me as a level-headed, ethical leader. Then again, so does Stockwell Day.
But I view Harper as being very Alberta-centred, always has been. I'm not sure his vision will work outside Alberta. Then again, we've had to swallow Eastern visions for years, maybe they should dine on a little Western cuisine for a while.
Plus, Harper seems ok himself, but he party is riddled with a few right-wing lunatics. And remember, it was the left-wing lunatics (Fry, Copps, Parrish) that helped ruin the Liberal party long before the waste and corruption did.
I do, however, believe that Harper will be an excellent leader of the opposition. And now that the party is viable, it is bound to attract some decent leadership candidates instead of C-list choices. I think one of them will make a fine prime minister in 2008.
So should I vote for Harper?
I'm actually learning towards the Greens!
Under Jim Harris, they are no longer the tree-hugging, protest-everything lunatics they used to be. Instead they are pragmatic, sensible environmentalists. Go check out their platform.
I think the Green party is a legitimate party that ought to have a voice. Perhaps with more votes the media will realise this and give them more coverage. I think 2-3 Greens would be an excellent addition to the House of Commons.
I look at Europe and know that in a couple hundred years we'll be as polluted and dirty as that unless we make some changes now. It makes sense to make painful decisions today to avoid drastic ones later.
Also, this way I can give my vote to someone who deserves it, without it being received as an endorsement for something I don't believe in. I don't want to vote for one party because I view the alternative as being even worse.
My riding is a safe riding, but it's my duty to vote.
To be honest, I don't know who I'll vote for until I vote. But I can tell you this: I will NOT vote for those Liberal a-holes!!!
(Written June 29, 2004)
Not to gloat, but:
Liberals - I said 124, they got 135.
Conservatives - I said 103, they got 99.
Bloc Quebecois - I said 52, they got 54.
NDP - I said 28, they got 19.
Independent/Other - I said 1, they got 1.
Result: I said "A Liberal/NDP Coalition government with a small number of BQ crossing the floor to sustain them." And that's essentially what happened.
They're still doing some recounts, the numbers could change, but clearly I was closer than the polls were.
What happened? Well I think the polls influenced NDP voters to go Liberal to prevent a Harper government.
What next? I think this minority government will hold for at least a year, possibly 2 (against the odds).